The green flag drops for the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at ISM Raceway in suburban Phoenix on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET. Following an electric start to the season at Daytona and two quick 1.5-mile tracks in Atlanta and Las Vegas, Phoenix is the Monster Energy NASCAR cup series’ first race in the tighter quarters of this one-mile loop in ISM Raceway. Kevin Harvick has won four of the previous five March races in this track and will be the 9-4 preferred to accumulate another win in the latest 2019 TicketGuardian 500 chances. Fellow veteran and Daytona 500 champion Denny Hamlin is getting 16-1, while Kurt Busch is at 30-1 NASCAR at Phoenix chances after a solid start to his season that has him at eighth in the NASCAR standings. Before you make your own 2019 TicketGuardian 500 selections, make sure you check at the NASCAR in Phoenix projected leaderboard from the SportsLine Projection Model.

Developed by DFS expert and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking factors like track history and recent results into account.

It made some huge calls in NASCAR last year, such as correctly projecting wins for Kyle Busch in Chicago and Martin Truex Jr. at Sonoma. Plus it’s off to a powerful start in NASCAR this year, calling Daytona 500 winner Denny Hamlin that a top-four contender and nailing eight of the top 10 drivers in a week’s Pennzoil 400, which included putting winner Joey Logano in its own projected top . Anyone who has followed its selections is way up.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Events at venues like ISM Raceway are in his blood. His version has now simulated Sunday’s 2019 NASCAR at Phoenix race 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

For your 2019 TicketGuardian 500, we can tell you the model is top on Clint Bowyer, making a strong run in the checkered flag despite heading off as a very long shot at 25-1 NASCAR odds. He is a goal for anyone looking for a payday.

Bowyer broke a five-season drought without a win last year and went on to grab a pair of victories at Martinsville and Michigan on the road to a 12th-place finish in the NASCAR Playoffs. This season, he’s added a top-five complete at Atlanta and has revealed remarkable speed at times. Bowyer has seven career top-10s at Phoenix and won a truck series race at this track in 2010.

Bowyer, who drives for Stewart-Haas Racing, was second in among the year’s Daytona Duels and shut out a year’s NASCAR schedule with an eight-place finish at Homestead. He will also come armed into the 2019 TicketGuardian 500 with a similar car set up to teammates Harvick and Aric Almirola.

Among the shocking 2019 NASCAR in Phoenix chooses from the model: Kevin Harvick, a nine-time winner in ISM Raceway and the top Vegas favorite, makes a solid run but falls short of winning everything.

Harvick has made a career from getting to the front of the package consistently at this track. In fact, he has finished in the top 10 in 11 consecutive starts at ISM Raceway

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