After back-to-back Team Penske wins, NASCAR heads to ISM Raceway’s one-mile flat trail in Phoenix for the fourth race of the season.

Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are riding streaks of eight top-12 endings dating back to last season, but both drivers will take a backseat to the current dominating performances of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch at Phoenix.

Harvick (9/4) and Busch (7/2) have the shortest chances to win Sunday’s TicketGuardian 500 and both won at the course last season. This weekend, even when Harvick were to win, he’d join an elite group, becoming just the sixth driver in series history to win 10 or even more Cup Series races at a single track; linking Richard Petty, Darrell Waltrip, Jimmie Johnson, David Pearson and Dale Earnhardt.

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In three of those last four Phoenix races, Busch has led 359 laps, including 117 in his triumph throughout last year’s playoffs — the first under the new arrangement of the track.

Phoenix’s monitor is similar to Richmond and New Hampshire and it’s no surprise both Harvick and Busch have had similar success at those racks. Busch has won the last two races in Richmond and the fall race at New Hampshire of 2017. Harvick won the most-recent race at New Hampshire and has finished in the top five in five of the previous six races at Richmond.

But unlike in these preceding races, all motorists will be using a new automobile setup implemented by NASCAR, one different from what we saw the previous two weeks in Atlanta and Las Vegas. This season teams will use a spacer — and no aero ducts — for the very first time. They’ll use a engine in Phoenix instead of their 550-horsepower engine at Vegas. NASCAR expects to see a well-handling car with a quicker response time around the throttle. The bundle that is new could close the gap Busch and Harvick have had on the area.

So far in 2 races with the marginally differing rules package of NASCAR, Ford has led 65 percent of their laps and has five period wins. Ford motorist Aric Almirola, Harvick’s teammate, will be a sleeper motorist. He was third at New Hampshire’s similar design final season, fifth at Richmond and fourth in last season’s fall race in Phoenix. Almirola is 20/1 to win on Sunday and we like him in a matchup with Kyle Larson at -110.

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Odds to win 2019 TicketGuardian 500 at Phoenix

Odds provided by Westgate LV SuperBook

Kevin HARVICK 9/4
Kyle BUSCH 7/2
Brad KESELOWSKI 7/1
Joey LOGANO 8/1
Martin TRUEX JR 10/1
Chase ELLIOTT 10/1
Denny HAMLIN 15/1
Kyle LARSON 20/1
Aric ALMIROLA 20/1
Clint BOWYER 25/1
Erik JONES 25/1
Kurt BUSCH 30/1
Ryan BLANEY 30/1
Jimmie JOHNSON 50/1
Austin DILLON 50/1
Alex BOWMAN 50/1
Ricky STENHOUSE JR 50/1
Daniel SUAREZ 60/1
Ryan NEWMAN 100/1
William BYRON 100/1
Daniel HEMRIC 100/1
Paul MENARD 100/1
Ryan PREECE 200/1
Chris BUESCHER 200/1
Matt DIBENEDETTO 200/1
Darrell WALLACE JR 500/1
Ty DILLON 1000/1
Michael McDOWELL 2000/1
David RAGAN 2000/1
FIELD (all others) 500/1

Read more: indycarracingnews.com