After launching at 3-1, Kyle Busch is the 3-2 favorite for NASCAR at Watkins Glen 2018, which runs Sunday at 3 p.m. ET. It’s the second road course race of the year and Denny Hamlin, listed at 10-1 NASCAR at Watkins Glen chances, won the pole on Saturday. Busch leads all active drivers with four road wins, including two at Watkins Glen, but his final win at The Glen was back in 2013. Martin Truex Jr. won GoBowling in The Glen this past year and can be recorded at 4-1 odds. Before you make any 2018 NASCAR in Watkins Glen picks, you want to see exactly what SportsLine’s innovative computer model has to say.

The model, built by DFS expert Mike McClure, has a proven track record in multiple sports. It also powers McClure’s DFS projections, which have led him to over $1 million in career winnings.

McClure, with a mechanical engineering degree, grew up around race tracks. Big racing events like this are in his blood, and his version has been beating its 2018 NASCAR picks.

The model has already made several enormous calls this year, nailing the 1-2 finish for Busch and Harvick in the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 as well as Harvick’s win in the KC Masterpiece 400. It also nailed five of the top 10 at Bristol and a couple of the top five at Daytona, simply to mention a couple. Anybody following its picks this season is way, way up.

Now that the 2018 NASCAR at Watkins Glen field is secured, SportsLine mimicked the occasion 10,000 times and the results were surprising.

One sudden pick from the version for GoBowling in The Glen 2018: Chase Elliott, obtaining the third-best NASCAR in Watkins Glen odds to triumph at 6-1, doesn’t sniff the top 10. He’s a driver to prevent on Sunday despite his leading starting position of third.

Elliott is still in search of his initial career Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series triumph. He has cracked the top 10 in four of the last seven starts, but was only 19th in Chicago and 34th at Daytona a month. Last year in Watkins Glen, Elliott again began close to the top in fourth, but finished a disappointing 13th. He clocked the fastest speed (124.520 miles ) in the last practices for GoBowling in The Glen 2018, but the model says he’s a favorite to fade.

Another shocker: Truex Jr., obtaining the second-best chances at 4-1, doesn’t even finish in the top five.

He has had plenty of success on street tracks, including winning last year. But he’s a risky pick at these chances because he has an average finish position of 12th in Watkins Glen in his career, and it has completed 10th or worse in three of his past six races here. There are better values available in this affluent Go Bowling in The Glen area.

Instead, the version is targeting two huge underdogs with chances longer than 30-1 that are poised to make a serious run in the checkered flag, such as a monster long shot. Anyone who bets on these underdogs could hit it wealthy.

Read more: totalsporty.com