This year’s Academy Awards, airing February 24 at 8:30 p.m. EST on ABC, have had a bumpy road, with declared (and retracted) category changes and an ultimately fruitless search for a host (the show will go without a bunch for the first time since 1989). However they remain the pop-culture gaming chance of the year.
For your 91st Academy Awards, Las Vegas-based film critic Josh Bell offers his insights to the best bets in the significant categories and which movies should walk off with the awards–along with the cash.
BEST PICTURE
Roma 4/1
Green Book 6/1
The Favourite 15/2
BlacKkKlansman 15/2
Black Panther 15/2
A Star Is Born 8/1
Bohemian Rhapsody 19/2
Vice 19/2
What is going to Win: This year has been more volatile than most, with assorted controversies and debates surrounding a range of nominees, along with the ceremony itself. So it’s tougher to pick on a clear Best Picture frontrunnerbased on momentum from prior awards. Roma might look like the crystal clear choice based on its BAFTAs and Critics’ Choice wins, but a movie not from the English language hasn’t won Best Picture before, and veteran Academy members may nonetheless be resistant to awarding a Netflix generation. Green Book, with its generally Oscar-friendly story about beating racial differences, inspired by true events, could probably be the safest bet, although objections from the family of subject Don Shirley and disagreeable news stories about director Peter Farrelly and co-writer Nick Vallelonga have tarnished its chances a little. Do not count out old-school Hollywood crowd-pleaser A Star Is Born or offbeat interval play (always a favorite Academy genre) The Favourite, either.
What Should Win: Though its LGBT-focused narrative, off-kilter design and unique sense of humor may be a bit too much for Academy members, The Favourite is the best and most imaginative of this year’s nominees, a brilliantly acted, darkly funny story about the intersection of sexual appetite and political power, far more incisive and entertaining than the muddled Vice. It may be easier for voters to comprehend the individual accomplishments than the movie as a whole, but it’s more than deserving of this award.

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