This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests a bit and I enjoy the new selection of competitions and prizes. The most important GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k belongs to 1st location. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first location price and that $175k will probably be distributed between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those overly hard. I’ll probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at the $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a good quantity of play into cash games.
Cash Game play of the week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for cash games, and I was only going to decide on the main event stack for my money game play of the week. However, I will see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I believe Shane Young creates a fantastic money game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he’s since I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a high floor since this battle should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this fight with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside in a conclusion, and I think he could finish this battle. But I feel like he’s a safe play for 80+ and that is why he is my cash game play of this week instead of my GPP playwith. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I think the only way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He must be the much superior fighter around the mat, and I believe he can hang the feet as well. I expect him to look for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any ground game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does have heavy power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 things, but that is exactly why he is my GPP drama of the week rather than my money game play of this week. In money, I want to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we have here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because when he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come away with a profit if he lost a determination at the price and still scored 30-40 points, we would simply have to hit our other areas. We don’t need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 there because he has 100+ upside since he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and that I could see him becoming multiple takedowns as well as a submission. I believe he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I do not expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot away from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs with this card. I expect this fight to remain standing for as long as it lasts. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that is true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs because he will have 5 rounds to function with and he’ll land a fair number of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his 8.9k salary, that may not place him on the $30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he’ll probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That is why he’s my underdog drama of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must remain on new with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve picked him as my fade every time he’s fought so I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not beneficial for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey can possibly score highly is by getting a knockout win. He fails to strike a high enough speed to score highly at a decision and that he won’t be going for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that might not be adequate to acquire a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x from a fighter once I roll them and together with his $7.9k price tag, that means I want at least 79 DK points. I don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight about the card and provide my complete DraftKings evaluation, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you can find that for only $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link as well. I’m 54-34 for +177.13un (+$17,713) because May 19th on Premium Plays)

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