This weekend, we’ve got a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings altered up their contests somewhat and I like the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is now a $10 buy and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a brand new Qualifier for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 admissions that match. Those Qualifier only contests can be real bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at the $30k decoration. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to receive a fantastic quantity of play into money games.
Cash Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am really not loving this slate to get cash games, and I was just going to pick the principal event stack for my money game play of the week. But, I can see the major event just scoring ~100 total points and when I am stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the stack and I think Shane Young makes a great money game play. I don’t know how large of a ceiling he has since I really do think this fight goes 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and much more confident in him not getting finished. I believe he’s a top floor because this fight should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he’s the better fighter anyplace and I see him winning this battle with a mixture of striking and wrestling. I do think he’s 100-point upside into a decision, and I think he can finish this fight. But I feel like he is a safe play for 80+ and that’s why he is my money game play of this week instead of my GPP play. GPP play of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this battle is by getting KO’d. He should be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet as well. I expect him to search for takedowns early and often, and Ishihara does not have any floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but that is exactly why he’s my GPP drama of the week rather than my cash game play of the week. In money, I want to lock in higher flooring and that’s not what we’ve got here. I enjoy this more for GPPs because when he loses at $9.4k it won’t matter how many points he has, we would not be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a gain if he lost a determination at the price and scored 30-40 points, we would just have to hit on our other areas. We do not need 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he has 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him getting numerous takedowns as well as a submission. I believe he gets a 1st or 2nd round submission and I don’t expect for him to stand too long using Ishihara. I think Kang can outscore Adesanya in this area and I enjoy him as a pivot from a big name who might be more popular.
Underdog drama of the week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually choosing Whittaker to win this particular fight, but I also don’t really like many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this fight to remain standing for as long as it continues. I personally see this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous decision. If that’s true, then I think Gastelum gets the highest floor of the underdogs since he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he’ll land a reasonable amount of shots. In addition, I believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute decision that he probably only scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that might not place him on the $30k lineup. If Kelvin wins, whether it be by KO or decision, he’ll almost surely be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3k salary. That is why he is my underdog drama of the week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on new with this one and pick Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I’ve chosen him my fade every time he’s fought so that I am going to roll with it . The design Alvey brings to the table is simply not valuable for DraftKings. The only real way Alvey could score tremendously is by obtaining a win. He fails to strike at a high enough pace to score highly at a decision and he will not be heading for any takedowns. Even if he gets a decision win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I want at least 10x out of a fighter when I roll them and with his $7.9k price tag, so I need at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that is why he is my fade of this week.
Thanks for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every fight on the card and give my complete DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all my pick predictions, then you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 54-34 to get +177.13un (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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