This weekend, we have a 12-fight PPV card in Australia. DraftKings changed up their contests somewhat and I like the new choice of contests and prizes. The main GPP is currently a $10 buy-in and $30k goes to 1st place. They also have a new Qualifier for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they’ll compete for a $50k first location price and $175k will be distributed between all 100 entries that qualify. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then toss 100 or so entries at that $30k prize. I will also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
Money Game play of this week — Shane Young ($9,100)
I am not loving this slate for money games, and I was only going to decide on the main occasion stack for my cash game play of the week. However, I will see the main event only scoring ~100 total points and when I’m stacking I need a floor of 100 with upside of 160 or so. I’ve changed my stance on the pile and I believe Shane Young makes a fantastic cash game play. I don’t understand how high of a ceiling he has because I do believe this fight goes all 3 rounds, but I really do feel confident in him winning and even more confident in him not getting completed. I believe he’s a high floor since this fight should move all 3 rounds, but I presume he is the better fighter everywhere and I see him winning this battle with a combination of striking and wrestling. I really do think he’s 100-point upside into a decision, and that I also think he can finish this fight. However, I feel like he is a secure play for 80+ and that is why he’s my cash game play of the week rather than my GPP playwith. GPP drama of this week — Kyung Ho Kang ($9,400)
I believe the only real way Kang loses this fight is by becoming KO’d. He must be the far superior fighter around the mat, and I think he can hang on the feet too. I expect him to look for takedowns early and frequently, and Ishihara does not have any floor game to compete with him off his back. Since Ishihara does possess hefty power in his hands I believe Kang has a floor of 0 points, but this is why he’s my GPP play of the week rather than my cash game play of this week. In cash, I wish to lock in high flooring and that is not what we’ve got here. I enjoy this for GPPs because if he loses $9.4k it will not matter how many things he’s, we wouldn’t be cashing. In cash games, we might still come off with a profit if he lost a determination at that price and scored 30-40 points, we would simply have to hit on our other spots. We don’t want 6 wins in money, but we do for GPP. Thus, we can take the opportunity on a 0 because he’s 100+ upside because he is going to be the fighter attempting to grapple and I could see him getting multiple takedowns in addition to a submission. I think he has a 1st or 2nd round entry and I don’t expect for him to stand too long with Ishihara. I believe Kang can outscore Adesanya in this spot and I like him as a pivot from a big name who might be popular.
Underdog drama of this week — Kelvin Gastelum ($7,300)
I’m actually picking Whittaker to win this fight, but I also don’t love many/any underdogs on this card. I expect this struggle to remain standing for as long as it continues. I personally find this going the space and Whittaker winning a unanimous choice. If that’s the case, then I think Gastelum has the maximum floor of the underdogs because he’ll have 5 rounds to work with and he will land a reasonable amount of shots. I also believe if Whittaker wins a 25-minute conclusion that he probably just scores 85-95 DK points. At his $8.9k salary, that may not put him on the 30k lineup. In case Kelvin wins, if it be by KO or decision, he will probably be on that $30k lineup in his $7.3additional salary. That’s why he is my underdog play of this week.
Fade of this week — Sam Alvey ($7,900)
I must stay on brand with this one and select Sam Alvey as my fade of this week. I have chosen him as my fade every time he has fought so I will roll with it again. The design Alvey brings to the table is just not valuable for DraftKings. The only way Alvey can possibly score tremendously is by obtaining a win. He fails to strike at a high enough speed to score highly in a decision and that he will not be going for any takedowns. Even if he receives a conclusion win here he could score 50-60 DK points and that may not be adequate to win a GPP, even with him being the underdog. I need at least 10x from a fighter when I roster them and together with his $7.9k price tag, so I need at least 79 DK points. I really don’t see that happening and that’s the reason he is my fade of the week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my full-card breakdown at which I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I’m 54-34 to get +177.13u (+$17,713) since May 19th on Premium Plays)

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