For the uninitiated, betting on the money line means gambling on which team you think will win the match. The money line is adjusted depending on the spread to assist risk is mitigated by novels.
By way of instance, a favored of four factors in the NBA might have a money lineup of approximately -184. This means that you would have to bet $184 to win $100 in the event that you wager on such a team to win.
For underdogs it works somewhat differently. A underdog in the NBA could have a money line. This means is that you’d win $150 for every $100 wagered on this team if they had been to win the match outright.
Converting NBA Spreads to Their True Money Lines What I’m really interested in is whether or not money line betting in the NBA is profitable. I went back over the outcomes of over 20,000 games to find out how teams have performed on the money line. I wanted to see whether it’s well worth taking at any spreads.
The chart below shows what the money line for NBA games at every spread should be dependent upon the outcomes of over 28,000 NBA games. It is necessary to note that these are the fair market values for every money line. Sportsbooks don’t offer fair market chances (otherwise they would find it tough to turn a profit). This way we can utilize the data to determine possible opportunities to take the money line when it is not properly priced. Since we have taken their built in advantage out of every chance, we can feel confident that we’re getting real value when the cash line posted in our book is far better than the price in the graph.
The more common that the spread, the more precise the win percentage is going to be. We have excluded spreads with less than 100 games to look at, but in reality you are better off considering those using a sample size of 500 or more matches.

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