When it comes to the Kentucky Derby, there’s been a very clear advancement in how intricate wagers could be, and how you can almost bet on any kind of outcome on Derby day. We’ve really moved far beyond simply picking a winner along with a second-place finisher and moved into head-to-head wagers, bets on racing fractions, duration of success, as well as stakes like how many Tweets President Donald Trump will make. Although I often find myself trying to rationalize and come up with quantifiable numbers to support my bet, who knows what’s going to occur after three Mint Julep’s and being down $300 before the real race even begins?
Here are just three of my favorite proposal wagers for your Kentucky Derby:
How many spans would be winner win ? Over 1.5 (-160), or Beneath 1.5 (+120)
The Kentucky Derby has been decided by less than 1 span on 42 events. On the opposite end, the Derby was won by four lengths or more 23 times.
Within this year’s run for the roses there appears to be a great deal of speed horses entered, or horses that tend to prefer the front end. With lots of vying for premature positioning, a potential pace duel might ensue upfront. If that’s true, then it tends to benefit horses which are sitting just off the rate, and gives a fair shot for some of the deep closers to operate down the frontrunners in the stretch.
The most likely case scenario with this bet to money is for quicker fractions upfront and also a bunched-up finish at the wire. In a field as competitive and closely matched as this one, there is a great deal of value in choosing the underdog option for the margin of length success.
Will any horse win two of three Triple Crown Races? No (-175), or Yes (+135)
The odds on this sure have changed as Justify became the 13th Triple Crown winner ever. Since 2002 there have been numerous near misses — six — with War Emblem, Funny Cide, Smarty Jones, Big Brown, I Will Have Another, and California Chrome.
Triple Crown winners tend to come in bunches together with three winners in the 1930s, four in 1940s, and three in the 1970s. This trend appears to be actually be factored into the odds of the wager, as well as the recency bias of Justify getting the bid this past year.
With the Kentucky Derby area as wide open as it’s been in years, and without a overpowering favorite — money on a simple proposition wager this weekend and wager the”No.”
The Last Place Saddlecloth Number Will be? Odd (-200), or Even (+160)
This amount appears to overvalue the fact that the longest shot on the board draws post 15. Even though there are just two 50-1 morning-line runners, the Japanese horse 15 Master Fencer will probably go off at higher odds than that in the telephone to the post.
Despite who performs or underperforms based on their likelihood, the most likely last-place finisher is a runner that records a DNF or has to pull up. This can often happen because of unforeseeable conditions and is something you cannot handicap for. Assuming that the race has been run smoothly, five of the 10 runners at 20-1 odds or higher will be breaking out of a gate having an even saddlecloth number. In +160, that seems like a lot of value to choose a 50/50 proposition wager.
Good luck this weekend, and revel in the”most exciting two minutes in sports!”

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